JPYC's circulating supply rose 2.3× in 48 hours — about half of the increase sits with a small group of addresses that first appeared after the listing

What the first report left open

The first report re-read the listing-day price dislocation through 55,293 executed trades on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). It showed that the reported highs only printed in trades below 1,000 JPYC, and that most of that day's new issuance never went through a DEX.

That leaves a simple question. If the new JPYC did not go through a DEX, where did it go? A price chart cannot answer it. Only on-chain balances laid out along a time axis can.

So balances for JPYC on four chains were collected at hourly resolution for 85 timestamps, from 00:00 on September 16 to 12:00 on September 19 (Japan time). Circulating supply here means total supply minus the balances held in the issuer's publicly known operational wallets — the same definition used on ChainAnalyzer's issuer pages. All amounts are stated at 1 JPYC = ¥1.

1. Circulating supply went from ¥1.93B to ¥4.41B, and only two chains grew

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Comparing the two ends of the observation window:

Total supply rose 2.4× on ¥12.48B of mints, but circulating supply grew by only ¥2.48B. As of 12:00 on September 19, ¥16.88B — 79.3% of the ¥21.29B total supply — still sat inside the issuer's operational wallets and had not reached the market.

Broken out by chain, only two chains grew.

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Kaia was the largest chain before the listing; 48 hours later Polygon was 2.5× its size. Kaia is the only chain that shrank. On Avalanche, ¥2.80B was minted and yet the amount reaching the market barely moved. Kaia also has a separate large holder that predates the listing and is unrelated to it, and that balance has in fact kept declining over these three days.

Circulating supply itself peaked on the evening of September 18 at about ¥4.49B, and has edged down since.

2. Where the increase went

Counting the destination of the ¥2.48B increase from the holder side gives a clear answer. A group of addresses that held nothing at all on September 16 held ¥2.25B on September 19 at 12:00 — 51.1% of the ¥4.41B circulating supply.

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The group first received JPYC at 11:06 on September 17 — 78 minutes after the listing notice (09:48) and seven hours before trading opened (18:00). The path from there:

The skew is larger still by chain. As of 12:00 on September 19 the group held 78.4% of circulating supply on Ethereum and 56.2% on Polygon. On Kaia it held 7.4%, on Avalanche nothing. The chain the first report described as holding "about 7% of all circulating JPYC" multiplied its circulating supply 8.8× in 48 hours, and roughly 80% of that went to this group. By the time trading opened, 51.3% of Ethereum's circulating supply was already there.

The first receipt on Polygon was at 19:31:45 on September 17, eight minutes after the same exchange opened Kaia and Polygon deposits at 19:23:09. The notice, however, was public information available to anyone, and the closeness of the two times is not enough to conclude a relationship between them. The times are simply placed side by side here.

3. How that group of addresses behaves

The shape of the transfers says a good deal about how the group operates. What follows is measured from 11:06 on September 17 to 12:00 on September 19.

• It received 3,341 transfers totaling ¥2.47B from 282 distinct addresses (181 on Ethereum, 174 on Polygon, 51 on Kaia). Of those, 101 addresses deposited on both Ethereum and Polygon, and those 101 alone account for 89.7% of the deposit value across the two chains. The same senders are paying into the same receiving addresses across chains.
• The median deposit is about 300,000 JPYC (about 310,000 on Ethereum, about 300,000 on Polygon, about 29,000 on Kaia). 688 deposits exceeded 1,000,000 JPYC, and the ten largest depositors account for roughly half of the total.
• The largest depositors are all ordinary addresses (EOAs); no DEX router or pool, no bridge and no known exchange wallet appears among them. There is no sign, at least at the top of the list, of JPYC bought in bulk on a DEX flowing in.
• JPYC arriving at the receiving addresses is swept mechanically into a single destination at a median interval of about 12 minutes. The destination is one and the same address on all three chains, and it takes 89–98% of all outbound transfers from the receiving addresses.

This shape — many senders paying into receiving addresses, then a periodic sweep into one place — together with the near-total absence of outbound payments to external addresses from September 17 until the morning of September 19 (three days of essentially one-way inflow), is consistent with an operation that pools deposits from many users. As noted below, however, not a single piece of public evidence identifies whose operation it is.

At 09:08 on September 19, payments out to external addresses began. This is the first outbound flow of any size. In the three hours that followed, ¥158M left on Polygon and ¥30M on Ethereum. In the same window, transfers back from the sweep destination to the receiving addresses also began, totaling ¥177M. That movement is what took the share from its 54.9% peak down to 51.1%. Whether those payments are withdrawals to users or moves to somewhere else cannot be determined.

4. On the issuer side, day three turned to net redemption

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Traffic between the issuer's operational wallets and the market, by day:

Net ¥2.49B reached the market over the three days, matching the independently computed change in circulating supply (+¥2.48B) to within ¥20M.

Two things stand out.

First, distribution into the market was extremely dispersed. 1,405 addresses on Ethereum and 2,055 on Polygon received JPYC from the issuer's operational wallets, and even the largest single recipient took less than 0.6% of the total (the same holds for flows back to the redemption wallet, where the largest was 1.6%). Nearly all of the increase ended up in one place, yet the entrance to it was spread across thousands of addresses.

Second, September 19 was net redemption on all four chains. Issuance that day had all but stopped through 12:00 (¥0.02B across four chains) and flows back to the redemption wallet exceeded it. This is 12 hours of observation on day 2.5, though — not long enough to call a trend.

5. DEX inventory barely grew

The first report noted that "the JPYC that passed through Ethereum's DEX pools on the event day was only about 19% of that day's issuance on Ethereum." That was a statement about flow; the same conclusion holds for stock.

Inventory across DEX venues grew by a combined ¥64M over the three days — 2.6% of the ¥2.48B increase in circulating supply. The DEXs were where a price printed on listing day, but they were not where the volume went.

6. What can and cannot be said

What is written above is an observation: 48 hours after the listing, about half of circulating JPYC sits with a small group of addresses that first appeared after the listing. Past that point there is a clear line.

• Attribution is unconfirmed. Neither the major block explorers nor ChainAnalyzer's own registry carries a public name tag for these addresses. That the behavior is consistent with an operation that pools deposits is as far as this goes; no primary evidence identifies whose operation it is.
• 51.1% is a lower bound. What was tracked here is limited to the addresses that the flow of funds indicates belong to a single entity. If further addresses belonging to the same entity are found, the share goes up.
• Closeness in time is not causation. Notices and deposit openings are public; anyone can react at the same moment. This article places times side by side and does not say that anything moved "in response to" anything else.
• Address counts are not people, and every figure carries a timestamp. The share moved 3.8 points in three hours on the morning of September 19 alone. Cut the window differently from 48 hours and the picture changes.

Whether concentration is itself good or bad is not assessed here. What is observable is only the fact of which chain, how much, and where it gathered.

ChainAnalyzer's issuer pages (no login required) publish per-chain total supply and circulating supply for JPYC and other major stablecoins, along with issuance and redemption events. Anyone tracking supply by chain can use /issuers/jpyc. For the breakdown of prices on listing day, see the first report, "Where did JPYC's '¥4' actually trade?".

Method and limitations

• Balances were read directly from each chain's archive nodes at 85 hourly timestamps from 00:00 on September 16 to 12:00 on September 19 (Japan time). For Avalanche alone, archive node responses did not arrive in time, so the series was reconstructed from transfer history and reconciled against measured values at six timestamps (maximum difference ¥100,000).
• Circulating supply is defined as total supply minus the balances held in the issuer's publicly known operational wallets. It is ChainAnalyzer's own aggregation and differs in definition and timing from figures published elsewhere.
• Each time series was built by two independent methods (direct balance queries and accumulation from transfer logs) and the two were compared. Across all 85 timestamps the maximum difference was within ¥5M.
• "Group of addresses" and "holders" refer to sets of addresses, not to people.
• DEX venue inventory is the JPYC-denominated balance of each chain's principal JPYC pools and is not exhaustive.
• The data set ends at 12:00 on September 19, 2026 and does not include anything after that.

This article is an analysis based on public information and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any crypto asset. It is not intended to inform investment decisions.